blog30

Stochastic: What’s it Really Showing You?

by with No Comment Forex

Ever heard the expression “getting ahead of the curve?” In trading, this cliche perfectly reflects what every trader wishes they could consistently do. In addition to fundamental analysis, you might turn to charts to forecast price moves. A big part of using charts to make sense of the markets are indicators, but are they really any good? Many traders turn to the Stochastic indicator to check overbought or oversold levels, so just what insights does Stochastic analysis really offer, and how can you use these insights to determine when to open a position?

 

Here’s an overview of this popular indicator, why you might be struggling to use it, and some top tips that will help you avoid misinterpreting market moves.

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Overbought and oversold

The terms overbought and oversold describe a period where there has been significant movement in price without much pullback or reversion. Simply put, a rise or fall that doesn’t deviate far from the trend line.

What goes up…! You know the saying. Price trends can’t last forever. They eventually reverse, and trading close to that point of reversal is one way you can maximize your profits. In traditional technical analysis, traders expect overbought or oversold currency pairs to reverse, but that’s not always the case and it can be quite an expensive realization. To constantly set your trades based on the Stochastic indicator will yield mixed and likely disappointing results.

How to read the Stochastic

If you’ve already signed up with Exness, then you have access to a trading platform and a risk-free demo account. This is the perfect way to get familiar with any of the free and paid indicators available. Open up your platform and go to the Navigator pane on the left. Scroll down and then drag the Stochastic folder to the chart. A section will appear below the price chart with two lines tracing along, above, and below a central range.

The concept is fairly simple. The lower horizontal line represents a value of 20. The upper horizontal line is 80. Whenever the tracing line breaches 80, it indicates a possible overbought status, and traders expect a price correction. Likewise, if the lines cross below the 20-mark, it signals a possible oversold status, and a reversal might be imminent.

In the above EURUSD example, a downtrend started on May 19 and crossed the 20-line on May 22 [yellow]. Traders using the Stochastic indicator would normally take this as a sign of overbought, and they would set a buy order with the expectations of a reversal. They would consequently be very pleased with the rise that followed. Just five days later, Stochastic indicated another oversold status [blue], but traders clicking the buy buttonprobably lost whatever profits they’d achieved the previous week. So, what’s going on?

Indicators are not fortune-tellers

FX News does not recommend using the Stochastic indicator as a stand-alone forecasting strategy. Indicators are best used to confirm theories, not to create them. Having said that, Stochastic is one of the best indicators a trader can use, but you might consider adding a little common sense to the mix. In the yellow example above, you can see that the price line and the Stochastic lines match rather well in the days preceding the oversold signal—and continue to do so after the fact. The perfect example of how a Stochastic indicator can forecast a reversal!

The blue example a few days later shows a clear divergence. The Stochastic line falls dramatically in a complete reversal from overbought to oversold, but the price line barely moves in comparison. Consider that a warning sign! Another common indicator is that the reversal usually comes when the rise or fall happens in a short period of time. Watch out for steep peaks and valleys that accompany the overbought/oversold range.

Top trading tips for advanced traders

Although we’ve used a price line to better illustrate the price moves in the chart image, FX News suggests using candlesticks when performing chart analysis. Moreover, Stochastic’s default %K period and slowing is set at 5,3,3, but cautious traders usually use higher numbers. On the top menu, go to Insert > Indicators > Oscillators > Stochastic Oscillator and set to 15,5,5. You can run both settings at the same time to see the differences. Certain settings may work better for certain pairs, so play around with the levels before committing to one.

 

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blog17

Want To Trade Forex Like An Expert? Keep A Journal

by with No Comment Forex

How Keeping A Journal Can Help You Grow And Improve As A Trader

Why? Simple. A journal is an invaluable tool for thinking through opportunities and risks, as well as for growing emotional self-awareness — a key part of trading.

A good trading journal should used for two purposes:

Use Number 1: Separating Facts From Interpretations

First, it should contain an analytical section where you can explore market facts and your interpretations of those facts. What do I mean by facts and interpretations? The highs and lows a currency pair reaches over the course of three days is a fact. So are the cost of spread, commissions, and amount of leverage you are using. However, the belief that the market may trend one way or another or the market will be strong or weak — these are interpretations. Learning to tell the difference between the two — and to question your interpretations — can lead to smarter, better forex trades. It can also help you spot opportunities you might otherwise have missed.

 

Use Number 2: Building Your Mental Game

Second, your journal should contain a section where you explore your thoughts and emotions towards the forex market and your performance on it. You should ask yourself questions like “What am I feeling right now?”, “What trading decisions do I normally make when I feel this way?”, and “What has usually been the result in the past? Did I lose or make money?” Exploring your emotions in this way can be a great way of developing emotional self-awareness and recognizing the many ways your emotional state impacts your trading — both are key traits of superior traders.

Top Tip: Keeping A Trading Journal Can Be Key To Your Development As A Trader

 
 

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AUD, Brexit, Brexit, Banks, CAD, CHF, CNH. currency hedging, CZK, Donald Trump, EU EUR, forex trading, GBP, Global, Growth, Fears, Gold Prices, Government Shutdown, HKD, Is forex trading profitable, JPY Leverage, Mean Reversion, MXN, NOK, NZD, Passive income, popular strategies, Risk Management, RUB, Safe, haven currencies, second referendum, SEK SGD, Silver, Price, technical indicators, trading account, Trading Basics, trading psychology, Trailing Stop, trump wall, TRY USD, USD Price, Chart, XAG, XAU, ZAR,

 
 
 
blog16

Want To Trade Forex Like An Expert? Control Your Environment

by with No Comment Forex

Why  Building A Supportive Forex Trading Environment Is Important

What do I mean by supportive trading environment? I mean that no one exists in a vacuum. Many things outside the actual forex market itself — from the physical environment you trade in to your personal circumstances at the time you are trading — can impact your trading performance. Maybe you have skeptical family members that are giving you a bad case of performance anxiety. Maybe you don’t have enough funds in reserve, which causes adverse anxiety and pressure that impacts your performance. Whatever the reason may be, the outside world impacts your performance just as much as market conditions.

Top Tip: The Outside World Matters

Knowing what outside factors impact your trading performance — and setting up your environment to support your best performance — can be a good way to improve your trading.

 

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Tags:

AUD, Brexit, Brexit, Banks, CAD, CHF, CNH. currency hedging, CZK, Donald Trump, EU EUR, forex trading, GBP, Global, Growth, Fears, Gold Prices, Government Shutdown, HKD, Is forex trading profitable, JPY Leverage, Mean Reversion, MXN, NOK, NZD, Passive income, popular strategies, Risk Management, RUB, Safe, haven currencies, second referendum, SEK SGD, Silver, Price, technical indicators, trading account, Trading Basics, trading psychology, Trailing Stop, trump wall, TRY USD, USD Price, Chart, XAG, XAU, ZAR,

 

 

blog14

Want To Trade Forex Like An Expert? Control Your Risk

by with No Comment Forex

Want to step above the crowd? Knowing when to cut your losses and being consistent and disciplined about doing so can help you truly elevate your trading game.

Why Controlling Risk Is Key To Developing As A Trader

At first glance, this sounds rather obvious, doesn’t it? It may surprise you, but far too many traders lose more money than they can afford by sticking with bad trades in the hope that things will turn around for them. In reality, this rarely happens.

Smart traders, in contrast, set firm stopping points with their broker before ever opening their trades. If their losses drop below the level set, they understand that the best thing they can do is to walk away.  While this sounds easy enough to do, actually doing it consistently in real life can be quite hard. It’s basic human psychology to try to hold on to what we perceive as ours and to recoup losses. Fighting through that urge and learning to walk away will put you head and shoulders above many traders, however.

Top Tip: Planning Is Key

Have a plan about how and when to cut your losses and be disciplined and consistent about sticking to it. For example, determine what percentage of your equity can you afford to lose before making a trade and set a stop-loss order to ensure you don’t go beyond it.

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blog8

Quasimodo Pattern (Over and Under)

by with No Comment Forex

Quasimodo Pattern (Over and Under)

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Easy guide to trading the Quasimodo Pattern

What is the Quasimodo (Over and Under) Pattern?

Conclusion:

Easy guide to trading the Quasimodo Pattern

The Quasimodo Pattern or Over and Under pattern is a relatively new entrant to the field of technical analysis in the financial markets. Although new, the Quasimodo pattern is a commonly occurring theme that is more frequent when price carves a top or a bottom or when price begins a major correction to the trend.The Quasimodo Pattern, although complex as it might seem is actually very simple. This trading pattern is especially powerful because when it occurs, in most cases, traders will notice a confluence with other methods of analysis.For example, when a trader spots a Quasimodo pattern near a support or resistance level, it increases the confidence of the trader or the trading probability. Likewise, when trading divergences, when you spot a Quasimodo pattern, that confluence can be used to trade the divergence set up with more confidence.As we can see from the above, the Quasimodo pattern is not a trading strategy by itself but is more of a confluence pattern that can be used to confirm a trader’s bias. Of course, the Quasimodo pattern doesn’t appear all the time, but when it does, traders can be sure that the market offers a high probability trade set up.

What is the Quasimodo (Over and Under) Pattern?

A Quasimodo Pattern is simply a series of Highs/Lows and Higher or Lower highs or lows.

Quasimodo Short Signal Pattern

There should be a prior uptrend in the marketsPrice makes a new high, declines and makes a new local lowPrice then rallies above the previous high to mark a new higher highPrice then falls to form a new lower lowPrice then rises towards the initial high (but does not make a new higher high).

The fifth level in the set up is the trigger, where a short position is taken. Stops are set above the higher high and the take profit level is up to the trader.

Quasimodo Long Signal Pattern

There should be a prior downtrend in the marketsPrice makes new low then makes a small rally and forms a local highPrice then declines to form a new lower low taking out the previous lowPrice then rallies to make a new higher high and then declinesThe final decline is equal to the first low

The fifth leg in this pattern is the trigger for long positions with stops set to at or below the lower low

Quasimodo Long Signal Pattern Examples:

Quasimodo Long Example #1

Price is in a downtrendPrice then makes a new low at 99.923 and then makes a new local high at 100.274Price then declines and makes a new lower low at 99.983Price then rallies to make a new higher high at 100.38 and then declinesThe final leg in the decline is just a few pips above the previous low. This triggers a long signal

Here is another example of the Quasimodo Long example:

Quasimodo Long Example #2 Quasimodo Short Signal Pattern Examples:

Quasimodo Short Example #1

Price is in an uptrendPrice then makes a new high at 1.5251 and then declines to make a low at 1.5187Price then rallies to make a higher high at 1.5321 and then declinesA new lower low is posted at 1.5165Price then makes a modest rally and this high stalls a few pips close to/above the previous highA short entry is then taken with stops near the highest highThere is also an additional confirmation yet again with the RSI divergence as well

Another example of the Quasimodo Short pattern example is given below:

Quasimodo Short Example #2

Conclusion:

As we can see from the above, the Quasimodo or Over and Under pattern is a relatively simple pattern, which when used in conjunction with other trading strategies or signals offers a great way to increase the probability of a trade set up.
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