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Retracement in Forex Trading

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Author: Andreas Thalassinos

Leonardo Fibonacci, an Italian mathematician from Pisa, is credited with introducing the Hindu-Arabic numeral system to Europe during the Middle Ages. In his book, Liber Abaci or ‘Book of Calculation’, he also introduced an influential sequence of figures which have come to be known as the Fibonacci numbers.

The relationship between the numbers in this sequence (i.e. the ratio) is not just interesting on a theoretical level. It appears frequently around us in the physical world and is integral for maintaining balance in nature and architecture. It is also important in the financial markets; many traders use Fibonacci ratios to calculate support and resistance levels in their forex trading strategies.

What is the Fibonacci sequence?

Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is calculated by adding together the two previous numbers.

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 …and so on to infinity

What is significant about this pattern, however, is that the ratio of any number to the next one in the sequence tends to be 0.618.

Furthermore, the ratio of any number to the number two places ahead in the sequence is always 0.382.

 
 

Similarly, the ratio of any number to the number three places ahead tends to be 0.236.

 

These ratios are commonly known as Fibonacci ratios.

Dividing these Fibonacci ratios will result in either 0.618 or 0.382:

How Fibonacci retracement works

In trading, these ratios are also known as retracement levels. Traders wait for prices to approach these Fibonacci levels and act according to their strategy. Usually, they look for a reversal signal on these widely watched retracement levels before opening their positions. The most commonly used of the three levels is the 0.618 – the inverse of the golden ratio (1.618), denoted in mathematics by the Greek letter φ.

How to draw Fibonacci retracement levels

Drawing Fibonacci retracement levels is a simple three-step process:

In an uptrend:

Step 1 – Identify the direction of the market: uptrendStep 2 – Attach the Fibonacci retracement tool on the bottom and drag it to the right, all the way to the topStep 3 – Monitor the three potential support levels: 0.236, 0.382 and 0.618

In a downtrend:

Step 1 – Identify the direction of the market: downtrendStep 2 – Attach the Fibonacci retracement tool on the top and drag it to the right, all the way to the bottomStep 3 – Monitor the three potential resistance levels: 0.236, 0.382 and 0.618

Of course, it is more reliable to look for a confluence of signals (i.e. more reasons to take action on a position). Don’t fall into the trap of assuming that just because the price reached a Fibonacci level the market will automatically reverse.

Combine Fibonacci levels with Japanese Candlestick patterns, Oscillators and Indicators for a stronger signal. As you can see in the chart below, the “Three White Soldiers” pattern is confirmed by the fact that prices are trading above the Moving Average line, and additionally that the MACD (Moving Average/Convergence Divergence) is above the zero line.

Trading using Fibonacci retracements

Every trader, especially beginners, dreams of mastering the Fibonacci theory. A lot of traders use it to identify potential support and resistance levels on a price chart which suggests reversal is likely. Many enter the market just because the price has reached one of the Fibonacci ratios on the chart. That is not enough! It is better to look for more signals before entering the market, such as reversal Japanese Candlestick formations or Oscillators crossing the base line or even a Moving Average confirming your decision.

 

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Bitcoin Technology: Under the Hood

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Author: Andreas Thalassinos

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a peer-to-peer cash payment system that would allow people to transact directly with each other, without the need of financial institutions. Since then a lot has been said and written about bitcoin, the new digital currency. The purpose of this article is to shed some light on the jargon surrounding the technology and, more specifically, the computer network that facilitates the payment system.In computer networks there are usually two main models: client/server and peer-to-peer. The difference is the role and functionality of each participating computer (or node, as it is usually called).

Client/Server

In a client/server model, there are two discrete entities; the server and the clients. This is a centralized environment where the applications, files and other resources are stored on a central computer – the server. The server acts as a central authority that provides services to the rest of the nodes in the network. It shares information and resources with the clients. All clients are connected to the central server. This model is prone to security breaches, hacks and breakdowns as the server constitutes a single point of failure. If the server is faulty, it can bring the whole network down.

Peer-to-Peer (P2P)

On the other hand, a peer-to-peer network is a decentralized model – in other words, there is no central authority or server. Instead, each node acts as both server and client, where all nodes are equal. BitTorrent is perhaps one of the most popular P2P networks for file sharing. While peers are vulnerable to security attacks (which the Bitcoin network takes care of through its protocols), the advantage is that scalability is easy. A new computer may be plugged into the network and be up and running once in sync with the network.

As the network expands, its computational power expands as well. Furthermore, a faulty computer will not jeopardize the integrity of the network. All computers are interconnected and communicate with each other constantly – this way, the propagation of messages continue uninterrupted. This is perhaps the greatest advantage P2P has – it’s a fault tolerant network.

Distributed System

The Bitcoin network follows a distributed application model, where the work load is spread among the participating nodes. When “digging” into computer networks, one will come across the Byzantine Generals Problem where consensus is the goal. In order to maintain reliability in the network, consensus must be reached among the participating computers. 100% consensus is, of course, ideal but not always feasible.

Byzantine Generals Problem

A group of Generals have surrounded an enemy city. They have to attack or retreat based on the Commanding General’s orders. It is imperative for the success of the campaign that there exists consensus among the Generals. Messages are passed from the Commanding General to the Generals through unsecure and penetrable networks. Even worse, a number of the Generals and/or even the Commanding General himself may be traitorous. As long as the Commander is loyal and the number of traitors is not greater than one third of the Generals, then consensus may be reached to attack or retreat at the same time.

In a nutshell, there must be 3t + 1 Generals where t represents the number of traitors.

It is obvious that General 1 will receive contradictory information from the Commander and General 2, who happens to be a traitor. In this scenario, it is not possible to achieve consensus (which is more than 50% in favor of attack or retreat).

The Bitcoin system faces the same type of problems as the Byzantine Generals. In order to bypass it, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced the proof-of-work concept. When sending a message, the message is hashed and a nonce is sent to all nodes to verify the proof-of-work. Every message (i.e. block) is chained and as a result it is close to impossible to tamper with it.

Conclusion

Bitcoin follows a decentralized, peer-to-peer networking and distribution model. Consensus is needed among the nodes to ensure smooth operation of the network. A number of “bad” nodes are not capable of altering the blockchain due to the implementation of proof-of-work.

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